Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK preview
In the Superettan fixture between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK, the 1X2 probabilities show Varbergs BoIS FC at 47%, while Ljungskile SK sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Varbergs BoIS FC has an expected goals figure of 1.46 compared to Ljungskile SK's 0.99, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. With a 50% chance for both teams to score and a 44% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, there is potential for more goals than expected. Recent form shows Varbergs BoIS FC with mixed results, while Ljungskile SK has shown some resilience, which could influence the outcome.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK: model vs market
| Source | Varbergs BoIS FC | Draw | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Varbergs BoIS FC / Ljungskile SK)
- 1.02 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Varbergs BoIS FC / Ljungskile SK)
- 0.83 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Varbergs BoIS FC goals. Columns: Ljungskile SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Ljungskile SK | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Varbergs BoIS FC or draw) | 75% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Ljungskile SK) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Varbergs BoIS FC win by 2+ | 24% | 4.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK recent form
Varbergs BoIS FC
2W 3D 1L
Ljungskile SK
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Varbergs BoIS FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ljungskile SK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Varbergs BoIS FC at home only, Ljungskile SK away only.
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 1 · draws 0 · Ljungskile SK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Ljungskile SK | 1-3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan |
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Before and after this match
- Varbergs BoIS FC, previous: Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC prediction
- Ljungskile SK, previous: Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK prediction