IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK preview
In the Superettan fixture between IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Norrkoping at 45%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. Ostersunds FK has a 22% chance of winning, and their expected goals are 0.75 compared to Norrkoping's 1.19.
While Norrkoping has a stronger recent form with D-W-W-D-W-D, Ostersunds FK has shown resilience with W-D-D-D-W-D. The model indicates a 31% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score. If Ostersunds FK can improve their attacking output, the expected goals could shift the dynamics of the match.
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK: model vs market
| Source | IFK Norrkoping | Draw | Ostersunds FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 33% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 33% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.93
- Attack rating (IFK Norrkoping / Ostersunds FK)
- 1.44 / 0.89
- Defence rating (IFK Norrkoping / Ostersunds FK)
- 0.65 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Norrkoping goals. Columns: Ostersunds FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Ostersunds FK | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Norrkoping or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Ostersunds FK) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win by 2+ | 20% | 4.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK recent form
IFK Norrkoping
3W 3D 0L
Ostersunds FK
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Norrkoping at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ostersunds FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Norrkoping at home only, Ostersunds FK away only.
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 1 · draws 0 · Ostersunds FK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Ostersunds FK | 0-2 | IFK Norrkoping | Superettan |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Oddevold vs IK brage — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- United Nordic vs GIF Sundsvall 2026-10-31
- Falkenbergs FF vs Sandviken 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- IFK Norrkoping, previous: Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping analysis
- Ostersunds FK, previous: Ostersunds FK vs United Nordic: odds and pick