IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping preview
In the Superettan fixture between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Norrkoping at 52%, while IFK Varnamo sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with an 11% chance. IFK Norrkoping's recent form includes 4 wins and 2 draws, while IFK Varnamo has 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches.
The expected goals indicate IFK Varnamo at 0.95 and IFK Norrkoping at 1.60. There is a 47% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could occur, particularly given Varnamo's ability to occasionally surprise.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping: model vs market
| Source | IFK Varnamo | Draw | IFK Norrkoping |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Published | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Norrkoping, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | 3.70 | 3.67 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.96 | +0.15 |
| IFK Norrkoping | 1.81 | 1.77 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (IFK Varnamo / IFK Norrkoping)
- 1.07 / 1.60
- Defence rating (IFK Varnamo / IFK Norrkoping)
- 0.77 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Varnamo goals. Columns: IFK Norrkoping goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Varnamo | 24% | 4.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| IFK Norrkoping | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Varnamo or draw) | 48% | 2.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or IFK Norrkoping) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win by 2+ | 28% | 3.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping recent form
IFK Varnamo
3W 0D 3L
IFK Norrkoping
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Varnamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Norrkoping away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-1-2
- Win rate
- 79%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 20 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Varnamo at home only, IFK Norrkoping away only.
Expected lineups
IFK Varnamo lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 H. Keto
- 3 A. Björnström
- 5 D. Bergqvist
- 2 J. Rapp
- 22 S. Thern
- 26 C. Johansson
- 10 V. Claesson
- 11 A. Ljungberg
- 14 M. Antonsson
Bench: S. Ohlsson, H. Andersson Mella, K. Meriluoto, S. Jansson, L. Róbertsson, M. Kamara, L. Selin
IFK Norrkoping lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 T. Krantz
- 6 V. Christiansson
- 5 C. Nyman
- 4 J. Weber
- 3 Olle Falth Viggo
- 20 A. Brönner
- 11 E. Jemal
- 10 A. Aleksanjan
- 38 T. Sandberg
- 34 N. Sernelius
- 23 A. Opsahl
Bench: A. Fransson, R. Nelson, K. Seka, L. Lif, Mbaye Cisse, F. Dagerstål, F. Holst-Larsen, H. Fagerberg
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: IFK Varnamo 2 · draws 2 · IFK Norrkoping 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | IFK Norrkoping | 6-0 | IFK Varnamo | Superettan |
| 2025-07-21 | IFK Norrkoping | 3-1 | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-27 | IFK Varnamo | 1-3 | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-01-19 | IFK Norrkoping | 1-0 | IFK Varnamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-27 | IFK Varnamo | 1-2 | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan |
| 2024-05-27 | IFK Norrkoping | 0-4 | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan |
| 2024-03-16 | IFK Norrkoping | 1-1 | IFK Varnamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-10-08 | IFK Varnamo | 2-1 | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan |
| 2023-04-16 | IFK Norrkoping | 2-1 | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan |
| 2022-10-24 | IFK Varnamo | 1-1 | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orebro SK v Osters IF — match page 2026-11-07
- GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold 2026-11-07
- Helsingborg v Falkenbergs FF — match page 2026-11-07
- Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-11-07
- IK brage v Norrby IF — match page 2026-11-07
- Sandviken vs United Nordic — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- IFK Varnamo, previous: Norrby IF – IFK Varnamo, 2026-10-31
- IFK Norrkoping, previous: IFK Norrkoping v Ostersunds FK analysis