Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK preview
In the Superettan fixture between Helsingborg and Ljungskile SK, the 1X2 probabilities show Helsingborg at 38%, Ljungskile SK at 35%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Helsingborg's expected goals are 1.09, while Ljungskile SK has a slightly higher expected goals figure of 1.23.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, indicating a close match where either side could find the net. Recent form shows Helsingborg with D-L-D-L-W-L, while Ljungskile SK has W-D-L-L-W-D. This recent performance could sway the match in Ljungskile SK's favor, despite the tight probabilities. Over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, suggesting a low-scoring affair is more likely.
Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK: model vs market
| Source | Helsingborg | Draw | Ljungskile SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Helsingborg, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helsingborg | 2.29 | 2.07 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.60 | +0.01 |
| Ljungskile SK | 2.75 | 3.13 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Helsingborg and Ljungskile SK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Helsingborg / Ljungskile SK)
- 0.74 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Helsingborg / Ljungskile SK)
- 0.98 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helsingborg goals. Columns: Ljungskile SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helsingborg | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Ljungskile SK | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helsingborg or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Ljungskile SK) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Helsingborg win by 2+ | 13% | 7.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Helsingborg and Ljungskile SK recent form
Helsingborg
1W 2D 3L
Ljungskile SK
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helsingborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ljungskile SK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-4
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helsingborg at home only, Ljungskile SK away only.
Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Helsingborg 0 · draws 0 · Ljungskile SK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Ljungskile SK | 4-1 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall — match page 2026-10-23
- Ostersunds FK v United Nordic — match page 2026-10-24
- IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken 2026-10-24
- IK brage vs Osters IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping — match page 2026-10-25
- Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF 2026-10-26
- Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Helsingborg, previous: Varbergs BoIS FC v Helsingborg analysis
- Ljungskile SK, previous: Ljungskile SK – IK brage, 2026-10-17