Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF preview
In the upcoming match between Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF, the 1X2 probabilities show Orebro SK at 37%, a draw at 26%, and Falkenbergs FF at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.61 for Orebro SK and 1.91 for Falkenbergs FF.
The model indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Orebro SK has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Falkenbergs FF has won four of their last six. This variance in form could lead to unexpected results.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF: model vs market
| Source | Orebro SK | Draw | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Falkenbergs FF below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Falkenbergs FF, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro SK | 2.14 | 2.45 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.40 | -0.11 |
| Falkenbergs FF | 3.02 | 2.63 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Orebro SK / Falkenbergs FF)
- 1.08 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Orebro SK / Falkenbergs FF)
- 1.12 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orebro SK goals. Columns: Falkenbergs FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orebro SK | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Falkenbergs FF | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orebro SK or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkenbergs FF) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkenbergs FF win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF recent form
Orebro SK
1W 3D 2L
Falkenbergs FF
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orebro SK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
Falkenbergs FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orebro SK at home only, Falkenbergs FF away only.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Orebro SK 4 · draws 1 · Falkenbergs FF 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Falkenbergs FF | 1-1 | Orebro SK | Superettan |
| 2025-10-05 | Orebro SK | 4-1 | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan |
| 2025-04-29 | Falkenbergs FF | 2-1 | Orebro SK | Superettan |
| 2020-10-17 | Falkenbergs FF | 2-1 | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan |
| 2020-08-01 | Orebro SK | 1-2 | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2019-07-20 | Orebro SK | 4-0 | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2019-03-31 | Falkenbergs FF | 1-0 | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan |
| 2016-08-28 | Orebro SK | 3-2 | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2016-07-23 | Falkenbergs FF | 1-3 | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Oddevold v GIF Sundsvall — match page 2026-10-23
- Ostersunds FK v United Nordic — match page 2026-10-24
- IFK Varnamo vs Sandviken 2026-10-24
- IK brage vs Osters IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping — match page 2026-10-25
- Helsingborg vs Ljungskile SK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Orebro SK, previous: IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK: odds and pick
- Falkenbergs FF, previous: Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS prediction
- Falkenbergs FF, next: Falkenbergs FF vs Sandviken: odds and pick