KCCA vs Lugazi preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between KCCA and Lugazi, the 1X2 probabilities show KCCA at 59%, while Lugazi sits at just 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 26% chance. KCCA has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.22 compared to Lugazi's 0.30, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction. Both teams to score is at 19%, and Over 2.5 goals is only at 20%. If Lugazi improves their recent form, which includes 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, they could potentially challenge KCCA's dominance.
KCCA vs Lugazi: model vs market
| Source | KCCA | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 32% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 32% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
KCCA and Lugazi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.52
- Attack rating (KCCA / Lugazi)
- 1.04 / 0.54
- Defence rating (KCCA / Lugazi)
- 0.64 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KCCA vs Lugazi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KCCA goals. Columns: Lugazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KCCA vs Lugazi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 19%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KCCA vs Lugazi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 59% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Lugazi | 8% | 12.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20% | 5.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 19% | 5.23 |
| No | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KCCA or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Lugazi) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 31% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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KCCA and Lugazi recent form
KCCA
3W 1D 2L
Lugazi
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KCCA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lugazi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: KCCA at home only, Lugazi away only.
KCCA vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: KCCA 1 · draws 1 · Lugazi 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Lugazi | 0-3 | KCCA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-10-16 | KCCA | 0-0 | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- NEC v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mbarara City vs Vipers 2026-10-28
- Kitara v BUL — match page 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- KCCA, previous: KCCA v UPDF analysis
- Lugazi, previous: Lugazi v Express analysis