Mbarara City vs Vipers preview
Mbarara City faces Vipers with a 11% chance of winning compared to Vipers' 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Mbarara City has struggled recently, with a form of W-L-D-D-L-L, while Vipers has performed better with W-D-W-W-D-D.
The expected goals show Mbarara City at 0.52 and Vipers at 1.55, indicating a strong advantage for Vipers. However, if Mbarara City improves their attack or if Vipers underperforms, the outcome could differ. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 34%, and both teams to score is at 33%, suggesting a low-scoring game is more likely.
Mbarara City vs Vipers: model vs market
| Source | Mbarara City | Draw | Vipers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 24% | 66% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 9% | 24% | 66% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mbarara City and Vipers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Mbarara City / Vipers)
- 0.78 / 1.73
- Defence rating (Mbarara City / Vipers)
- 1.13 / 0.51
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mbarara City vs Vipers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mbarara City goals. Columns: Vipers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mbarara City vs Vipers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mbarara City vs Vipers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 9% | 10.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Vipers | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.07 |
| No | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mbarara City or draw) | 34% | 2.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Vipers) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mbarara City and Vipers recent form
Mbarara City
1W 2D 3L
Vipers
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mbarara City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Vipers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mbarara City at home only, Vipers away only.
Mbarara City vs Vipers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mbarara City 0 · draws 0 · Vipers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Mbarara City | 1-2 | Vipers | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-06 | Vipers | 2-0 | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SC Villa v Blacks Power — match page 2026-10-27
- Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- UPDF vs URA 2026-10-27
- NEC v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Kitara v BUL — match page 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- KCCA vs Lugazi 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Mbarara City, previous: SC Villa vs Mbarara City prediction
- Vipers, previous: Vipers vs Police: odds and pick