Mbarara City vs KCCA preview
In the Uganda Premier League, Mbarara City faces KCCA with 20% chances for Mbarara City to win, 36% for a draw, and 43% for KCCA to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 19%. KCCA has shown stronger recent form, with 3 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Mbarara City's 1 win.
KCCA's expected goals sit at 1.02, while Mbarara City has an expected goals figure of 0.61. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 23%, and both teams to score is at 31%. These figures suggest a low-scoring match, but a surprise performance from Mbarara City could change the outcome.
Mbarara City vs KCCA: model vs market
| Source | Mbarara City | Draw | KCCA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 36% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 36% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mbarara City and KCCA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.63
- Attack rating (Mbarara City / KCCA)
- 0.78 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Mbarara City / KCCA)
- 1.13 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mbarara City vs KCCA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mbarara City goals. Columns: KCCA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mbarara City vs KCCA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mbarara City vs KCCA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 20% | 4.92 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.76 | |
| KCCA | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.28 |
| No | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mbarara City or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| X2 (draw or KCCA) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win by 2+ | 18% | 5.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mbarara City and KCCA recent form
Mbarara City
1W 2D 3L
KCCA
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mbarara City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
KCCA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mbarara City at home only, KCCA away only.
Mbarara City vs KCCA head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mbarara City 0 · draws 0 · KCCA 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | KCCA | 4-1 | Mbarara City | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-11-28 | Mbarara City | 1-2 | KCCA | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kataka vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Blacks Power v NEC — match page 2026-10-31
- BUL vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-31
- Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz — match page 2026-10-31
- Lugazi vs SC Villa 2026-10-31
- UPDF v Kitara — match page 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ntugasaze vs Express 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Mbarara City, previous: Mbarara City vs Vipers prediction
- KCCA, previous: KCCA vs Lugazi: odds and pick