UPDF vs Kitara preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between UPDF and Kitara, the 1X2 probabilities show UPDF at 41%, Kitara at 28%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of UPDF, with a 12% chance. However, UPDF's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Kitara has 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge the predicted outcome.
The expected goals suggest UPDF at 1.26 and Kitara at 1.00, indicating a close contest. With both teams to score at 47% and Over 2.5 goals at 39%, the match could see more action than anticipated. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
UPDF vs Kitara: model vs market
| Source | UPDF | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UPDF and Kitara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (UPDF / Kitara)
- 0.82 / 1.12
- Defence rating (UPDF / Kitara)
- 1.03 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UPDF vs Kitara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UPDF goals. Columns: Kitara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UPDF vs Kitara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UPDF vs Kitara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Kitara | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UPDF or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Kitara) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | UPDF win by 2+ | 19% | 5.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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UPDF and Kitara recent form
UPDF
2W 2D 2L
Kitara
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UPDF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Kitara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: UPDF at home only, Kitara away only.
UPDF vs Kitara head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: UPDF 0 · draws 1 · Kitara 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | UPDF | 1-1 | Kitara | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-07 | Kitara | 2-1 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kataka vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Blacks Power v NEC — match page 2026-10-31
- BUL vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-31
- Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz — match page 2026-10-31
- Mbarara City vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lugazi vs SC Villa 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ntugasaze vs Express 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- UPDF, previous: UPDF – URA, 2026-10-27
- Kitara, previous: Kitara – BUL, 2026-10-28