Lugazi vs SC Villa preview
In the Uganda Premier League match between Lugazi and SC Villa, the 1X2 probabilities show SC Villa at 65%, while Lugazi sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 20% chance. SC Villa's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive wins, while Lugazi has only managed 1 win in their last 6 matches.
However, the prediction could be challenged if Lugazi improves their scoring, as they have an expected goals figure of 0.43 compared to SC Villa's 1.57. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score stands at 29%. This indicates a low likelihood of a high-scoring game, which could affect the outcome.
Lugazi vs SC Villa: model vs market
| Source | Lugazi | Draw | SC Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 26% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 9% | 26% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.43.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lugazi and SC Villa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (Lugazi / SC Villa)
- 0.54 / 1.89
- Defence rating (Lugazi / SC Villa)
- 0.95 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lugazi vs SC Villa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lugazi goals. Columns: SC Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lugazi vs SC Villa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lugazi vs SC Villa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lugazi | 9% | 11.34 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| SC Villa | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.51 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lugazi or draw) | 35% | 2.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Villa) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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Lugazi and SC Villa recent form
Lugazi
1W 2D 3L
SC Villa
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lugazi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
SC Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lugazi at home only, SC Villa away only.
Lugazi vs SC Villa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lugazi 0 · draws 1 · SC Villa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Lugazi | 0-1 | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-31 | SC Villa | 0-0 | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Blacks Power v NEC — match page 2026-10-31
- BUL vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-31
- Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz — match page 2026-10-31
- Mbarara City vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- UPDF v Kitara — match page 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ntugasaze vs Express 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lugazi, previous: KCCA vs Lugazi: odds and pick
- SC Villa, previous: SC Villa vs Blacks Power: odds and pick