Ntugasaze vs Express preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Ntugasaze and Express, the 1X2 probabilities show Express at 37% and Ntugasaze at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Express's slight edge in expected goals at 0.97 compared to Ntugasaze's 0.79.
However, both teams to score stands at 35%, indicating a chance that neither team may find the net. Additionally, the recent form shows Ntugasaze struggling with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Express has drawn in 4 of their last 5 games. This could impact the outcome and the overall goal tally.
Ntugasaze vs Express: model vs market
| Source | Ntugasaze | Draw | Express |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 36% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 36% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ntugasaze and Express expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.76
- Attack rating (Ntugasaze / Express)
- 0.71 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Ntugasaze / Express)
- 1.55 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ntugasaze vs Express score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ntugasaze goals. Columns: Express goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ntugasaze vs Express goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ntugasaze vs Express
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 27% | 3.69 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Express | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.84 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ntugasaze or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Express) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Express win by 2+ | 14% | 6.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ntugasaze and Express recent form
Ntugasaze
1W 0D 5L
Express
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ntugasaze at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Express away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ntugasaze at home only, Express away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz — match page 2026-10-31
- Mbarara City vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lugazi vs SC Villa 2026-10-31
- UPDF v Kitara — match page 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Ntugasaze, previous: NEC v Ntugasaze analysis
- Express, previous: Express vs Kataka: odds and pick