NEC vs Ntugasaze preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between NEC and Ntugasaze, the 1X2 probabilities show NEC at 79%, while Ntugasaze stands at just 4%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a probability of 18%. NEC's expected goals are 2.26 compared to Ntugasaze's 0.40, indicating a strong offensive performance from NEC.
However, there are factors that could change the outcome. The recent form shows NEC with a record of W-D-W-D-W-W, while Ntugasaze has struggled, losing the last 6 matches. Additionally, the model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and only a 30% chance for both teams to score, which could impact the final result.
NEC vs Ntugasaze: model vs market
| Source | NEC | Draw | Ntugasaze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 17% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 77% | 17% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
NEC and Ntugasaze expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (NEC / Ntugasaze)
- 1.17 / 0.71
- Defence rating (NEC / Ntugasaze)
- 0.79 / 1.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC vs Ntugasaze score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC goals. Columns: Ntugasaze goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC vs Ntugasaze goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC vs Ntugasaze
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.74 | |
| Ntugasaze | 6% | 16.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.85 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Ntugasaze) | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NEC and Ntugasaze recent form
NEC
3W 2D 1L
Ntugasaze
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Ntugasaze away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: NEC at home only, Ntugasaze away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SC Villa v Blacks Power — match page 2026-10-27
- Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- UPDF vs URA 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mbarara City vs Vipers 2026-10-28
- Kitara v BUL — match page 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- KCCA vs Lugazi 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- NEC, previous: BUL vs NEC prediction
- Ntugasaze, previous: Kitara – Ntugasaze, 2026-10-21