Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 51%, while Kigezi HomeBoyz sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time.
Kigezi HomeBoyz has struggled recently, with a record of L-L-L-D-L, while Police has shown some resilience with a mixed form of L-L-W-D-L-W. The expected goals suggest Police could score 1.38, compared to Kigezi HomeBoyz's 0.73. However, if Kigezi HomeBoyz improves their form, they could challenge the expected outcome.
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz: model vs market
| Source | Police | Draw | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (Police / Kigezi HomeBoyz)
- 0.89 / 0.52
- Defence rating (Police / Kigezi HomeBoyz)
- 1.46 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Police goals. Columns: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.71 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Police or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Kigezi HomeBoyz) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Police and Kigezi HomeBoyz recent form
Police
2W 1D 3L
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Police at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Kigezi HomeBoyz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Police at home only, Kigezi HomeBoyz away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SC Villa v Blacks Power — match page 2026-10-27
- UPDF vs URA 2026-10-27
- NEC v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mbarara City vs Vipers 2026-10-28
- Kitara v BUL — match page 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- KCCA vs Lugazi 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Police, previous: Vipers vs Police: odds and pick
- Kigezi HomeBoyz, previous: Kigezi HomeBoyz – Entebbe UPPC, 2026-10-22