Kataka vs Police preview
In the Uganda Premier League, Kataka faces Police with 32% chances for Kataka to win, 29% for a draw, and 39% for a Police victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.18 for Kataka and 1.32 for Police.
Both teams to score has a probability of 52%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 46%. Kataka's recent form shows a struggle with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Police has 2 draws and 1 win in the same period. These trends could influence the match outcome, making it possible for the predictions to vary.
Kataka vs Police: model vs market
| Source | Kataka | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kataka and Police expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Kataka / Police)
- 0.75 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Kataka / Police)
- 1.89 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kataka vs Police score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kataka goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kataka vs Police goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kataka vs Police
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Police | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kataka or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Police) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win by 2+ | 18% | 5.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kataka and Police recent form
Kataka
0W 1D 5L
Police
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kataka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Police away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kataka at home only, Police away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Blacks Power v NEC — match page 2026-10-31
- BUL vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-31
- Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz — match page 2026-10-31
- Mbarara City vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lugazi vs SC Villa 2026-10-31
- UPDF v Kitara — match page 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ntugasaze vs Express 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kataka, previous: Express vs Kataka: odds and pick
- Police, previous: Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction