UPDF vs URA preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between UPDF and URA, the 1X2 probabilities show UPDF at 42%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. The expected goals indicate UPDF at 1.07 and URA at 0.74, suggesting a potential edge for UPDF.
However, UPDF's recent form includes 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while URA has managed only 1 win in the same period. The chances of Over 2.5 goals sit at 27%, and both teams to score is at 36%. If URA improves their performance, it could challenge UPDF's expected advantage.
UPDF vs URA: model vs market
| Source | UPDF | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 35% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 35% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UPDF and URA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (UPDF / URA)
- 0.82 / 0.83
- Defence rating (UPDF / URA)
- 1.03 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UPDF vs URA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UPDF goals. Columns: URA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UPDF vs URA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UPDF vs URA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UPDF | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.88 | |
| URA | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.80 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UPDF or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| X2 (draw or URA) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | UPDF win by 2+ | 18% | 5.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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| 1 |  |
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UPDF and URA recent form
UPDF
2W 2D 2L
URA
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UPDF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
URA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: UPDF at home only, URA away only.
UPDF vs URA head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: UPDF 0 · draws 1 · URA 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | UPDF | 0-0 | URA | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-10-29 | URA | 3-2 | UPDF | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SC Villa v Blacks Power — match page 2026-10-27
- Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- NEC v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mbarara City vs Vipers 2026-10-28
- Kitara v BUL — match page 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- KCCA vs Lugazi 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- UPDF, previous: KCCA v UPDF analysis
- URA, previous: Blacks Power vs URA: odds and pick