Chornomorets vs Karpaty preview
In the fixture between Chornomorets and Karpaty, the 1X2 probabilities show Karpaty at 51%, compared to Chornomorets at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability.
Chornomorets has an expected goals figure of 0.74, while Karpaty stands at 1.39. The model suggests a 36% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. However, if Chornomorets improves its attacking performance, it could change the dynamics of the match.
Chornomorets vs Karpaty: model vs market
| Source | Chornomorets | Draw | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.84.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chornomorets and Karpaty expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Chornomorets / Karpaty)
- 0.78 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Chornomorets / Karpaty)
- 1.00 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chornomorets vs Karpaty score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chornomorets goals. Columns: Karpaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chornomorets vs Karpaty goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chornomorets vs Karpaty
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chornomorets | 21% | 4.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Karpaty | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chornomorets or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Karpaty) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Karpaty win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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Chornomorets and Karpaty recent form
Chornomorets
1W 2D 3L
Karpaty
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chornomorets at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Karpaty away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chornomorets at home only, Karpaty away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Zorya Luhansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Bukovyna v Kryvbas KR — match page 2026-10-24
- Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka 2026-10-24
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC Kharkiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Chornomorets, previous: Zorya Luhansk – Chornomorets, 2026-10-17
- Karpaty, previous: Karpaty v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi analysis