Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk preview
In the upcoming match between Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk, the 1X2 probabilities show Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% to win, while Zorya Luhansk sits at just 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. Shakhtar's expected goals are 2.04 compared to Zorya's 0.86, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Shakhtar.
However, Zorya Luhansk has shown some resilience recently, winning 2 of their last 5 matches. The probability for both teams to score is 51%, suggesting that while Shakhtar is favored, Zorya could find the net. With a confidence grade of C, there is potential for unexpected outcomes, especially if Zorya's form improves.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk: model vs market
| Source | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Zorya Luhansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Zorya Luhansk)
- 1.57 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Shakhtar Donetsk / Zorya Luhansk)
- 0.66 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Columns: Zorya Luhansk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Zorya Luhansk | 14% | 7.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shakhtar Donetsk or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Zorya Luhansk) | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk
5W 1D 0L
Zorya Luhansk
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shakhtar Donetsk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Zorya Luhansk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shakhtar Donetsk at home only, Zorya Luhansk away only.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 · draws 0 · Zorya Luhansk 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Zorya Luhansk | 1-2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-09-22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-0 | Zorya Luhansk | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Dynamo Kyiv vs Kudrivka — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chornomorets vs Karpaty 2026-10-24
- Bukovyna v Kryvbas KR — match page 2026-10-24
- Polessya vs Obolon'-Brovar — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka 2026-10-24
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC Kharkiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Shakhtar Donetsk, previous: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: odds and pick
- Shakhtar Donetsk, next: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: odds and pick
- Zorya Luhansk, previous: Zorya Luhansk – Chornomorets, 2026-10-17