Austin vs Portland Timbers preview
In the match between Austin and Portland Timbers, the 1X2 probabilities show Portland Timbers at 42% and Austin at 35%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which has an 8% chance of occurring. This suggests a competitive game, but recent form could impact the outcome; Austin has lost 5 of their last 6 matches, while Portland Timbers has won 2 of their last 3.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 71%. Expected goals are 1.72 for Austin and 1.89 for Portland Timbers, reflecting the potential for an open match. However, Austin's recent struggles could lead to a different result than predicted.
Austin vs Portland Timbers: model vs market
| Source | Austin | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 55% |
| Published | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Austin vs Portland Timbers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Portland Timbers, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 4.23 | 4.20 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.03 |
| Portland Timbers | 1.67 | 1.70 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austin and Portland Timbers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Austin / Portland Timbers)
- 0.85 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Austin / Portland Timbers)
- 1.25 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austin vs Portland Timbers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austin goals. Columns: Portland Timbers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austin vs Portland Timbers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austin vs Portland Timbers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 25% | 4.04 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Portland Timbers | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austin or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Portland Timbers) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portland Timbers win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Austin and Portland Timbers recent form
Austin
1W 0D 5L
Portland Timbers
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-10
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austin at home only, Portland Timbers away only.
Austin vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Austin 2 · draws 2 · Portland Timbers 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Portland Timbers | 1-2 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-05 | Austin | 0-0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-02 | Portland Timbers | 1-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-03 | Portland Timbers | 0-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-30 | Austin | 0-2 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-18 | Austin | 1-2 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-07 | Portland Timbers | 2-2 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-09-01 | Austin | 1-2 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-03-13 | Portland Timbers | 1-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-11-07 | Portland Timbers | 3-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page 2026-11-08
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2026-11-08
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page 2026-11-08
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Austin, previous: Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin analysis
- Portland Timbers, previous: Portland Timbers – Houston Dynamo, 2026-11-02