Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin preview
In the match between Los Angeles Galaxy and Austin, the 1X2 probabilities show Los Angeles Galaxy at 49% to win, while Austin stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Galaxy recording 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Austin's single win in the same span.
The expected goals suggest Los Angeles Galaxy will score 1.99 and Austin 1.46. With both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both at 67%, there is a strong chance of a high-scoring game. However, Austin's recent struggles could impact their ability to convert chances, potentially affecting the outcome.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin: model vs market
| Source | Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | Austin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Los Angeles Galaxy and Austin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / Austin)
- 1.08 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / Austin)
- 1.18 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Los Angeles Galaxy goals. Columns: Austin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Austin | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Los Angeles Galaxy or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Austin) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles Galaxy win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Los Angeles Galaxy and Austin recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy
3W 2D 1L
Austin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Los Angeles Galaxy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Los Angeles Galaxy at home only, Austin away only.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Austin head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Los Angeles Galaxy 1 · draws 0 · Austin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Austin | 1-2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-2 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-19 | Austin | 1-0 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC 2026-10-31
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page 2026-10-31
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-31
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Los Angeles Galaxy, previous: Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy prediction
- Austin, previous: Austin v Real Salt Lake analysis