San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake preview
In the match between San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 36%, with a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. San Jose's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws, while Real Salt Lake has 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches.
The forecast indicates a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. The expected goals are closely matched, with San Jose at 1.35 and Real Salt Lake at 1.36. A factor that could affect the outcome is the recent inconsistency of both teams.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake: model vs market
| Source | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (San Jose Earthquakes / Real Salt Lake)
- 0.82 / 0.96
- Defence rating (San Jose Earthquakes / Real Salt Lake)
- 1.03 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Columns: Real Salt Lake goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Real Salt Lake | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Jose Earthquakes or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Salt Lake) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Salt Lake win by 2+ | 17% | 5.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
1W 4D 1L
Real Salt Lake
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Jose Earthquakes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-10
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Jose Earthquakes at home only, Real Salt Lake away only.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 4 · draws 2 · Real Salt Lake 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Real Salt Lake | 1-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-27 | Real Salt Lake | 2-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4-0 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-06 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0-1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-08-25 | Real Salt Lake | 0-2 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-1 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-23 | Real Salt Lake | 3-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-31 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-06-19 | Real Salt Lake | 2-0 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-10-30 | Real Salt Lake | 3-4 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-31
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- San Jose Earthquakes, previous: San Jose Earthquakes – Colorado Rapids, 2026-10-29
- Real Salt Lake, previous: Austin v Real Salt Lake analysis