Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes preview
In the match between Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes, the key figure is the 52% probability for Minnesota United FC to win. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Minnesota United FC has a stronger expected goals figure of 2.16 compared to San Jose's 1.51.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Minnesota United FC recording W-D-W-D-D-L and San Jose Earthquakes at W-D-L-D-D-D. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected outcomes, affecting the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals (71%) and both teams to score (70%).
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: model vs market
| Source | Minnesota United FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Minnesota United FC, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 1.73 | 1.70 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.20 | +0.08 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4.04 | 4.10 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Minnesota United FC / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 1.30 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Minnesota United FC / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 1.16 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Minnesota United FC goals. Columns: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Minnesota United FC or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or San Jose Earthquakes) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
Minnesota United FC
3W 3D 0L
San Jose Earthquakes
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Minnesota United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
San Jose Earthquakes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Minnesota United FC at home only, San Jose Earthquakes away only.
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Minnesota United FC 5 · draws 2 · San Jose Earthquakes 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-5 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4-2 | Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup |
| 2025-07-13 | Minnesota United FC | 4-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-09 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0-1 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-2 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-21 | Minnesota United FC | 2-0 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-01 | Minnesota United FC | 1-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-02-15 | Minnesota United FC | 1-4 | San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-10-02 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-0 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page 2026-11-08
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2026-11-08
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Minnesota United FC, previous: Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC analysis
- San Jose Earthquakes, previous: San Jose Earthquakes – Real Salt Lake, 2026-10-31