Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC preview
In the match between Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Philadelphia Union at 66%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The expected goals are 2.78 for Philadelphia Union and 1.22 for Toronto FC, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, Toronto FC's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Philadelphia Union's dominance. The model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 67%. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC: model vs market
| Source | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Published | 66% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.22.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Philadelphia Union, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.97 | 5.00 | +0.03 |
| Toronto FC | 5.85 | 6.00 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.00
- Attack rating (Philadelphia Union / Toronto FC)
- 1.26 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Philadelphia Union / Toronto FC)
- 0.82 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals. Columns: Toronto FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Toronto FC | 15% | 6.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Philadelphia Union or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Toronto FC) | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC recent form
Philadelphia Union
2W 2D 2L
Toronto FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Philadelphia Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-10
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Philadelphia Union at home only, Toronto FC away only.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Philadelphia Union 3 · draws 4 · Toronto FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Toronto FC | 3-3 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-09 | Philadelphia Union | 1-1 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-28 | Toronto FC | 1-2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-13 | Toronto FC | 2-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-29 | Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-08-30 | Toronto FC | 3-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-22 | Philadelphia Union | 4-2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | Philadelphia Union | 4-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-04-16 | Toronto FC | 2-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-10-27 | Toronto FC | 2-2 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC 2026-11-07
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page 2026-11-07
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- DC United vs New York City FC 2026-11-07
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page 2026-11-07
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Philadelphia Union, previous: FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union analysis
- Toronto FC, previous: Atlanta United FC – Toronto FC, 2026-11-01