New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC preview
In the match between New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC, the 1X2 probabilities show New York Red Bulls at 48%, while Atlanta United FC is at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also suggests a 61% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score.
New York Red Bulls have an expected goals figure of 1.61, slightly higher than Atlanta United FC's 1.54. Recent form indicates New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Atlanta United FC has also won 2 out of 6. The head-to-head record shows both teams are evenly matched, with 4 wins each in their last 10 encounters.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC: model vs market
| Source | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New York Red Bulls, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 1.88 | 1.85 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.20 | +0.15 |
| Atlanta United FC | 3.45 | 3.50 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (New York Red Bulls / Atlanta United FC)
- 0.86 / 1.06
- Defence rating (New York Red Bulls / Atlanta United FC)
- 1.06 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals. Columns: Atlanta United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Atlanta United FC | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York Red Bulls or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlanta United FC) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | New York Red Bulls win by 2+ | 20% | 5.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC recent form
New York Red Bulls
2W 0D 4L
Atlanta United FC
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York Red Bulls at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-7
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: New York Red Bulls at home only, Atlanta United FC away only.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New York Red Bulls 4 · draws 2 · Atlanta United FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Atlanta United FC | 2-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-02-11 | Atlanta United FC | 3-2 | New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-05-31 | New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-09 | Atlanta United FC | 0-0 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-05 | Atlanta United FC | 2-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-21 | New York Red Bulls | 2-2 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-24 | New York Red Bulls | 4-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-01 | Atlanta United FC | 1-0 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-08-17 | Atlanta United FC | 1-2 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-01 | New York Red Bulls | 2-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page 2026-11-07
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- DC United vs New York City FC 2026-11-07
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page 2026-11-07
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- New York Red Bulls, previous: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls: odds and pick
- Atlanta United FC, previous: Atlanta United FC – Toronto FC, 2026-11-01