Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution preview
Orlando City SC faces New England Revolution with a 46% chance of winning compared to 31% for New England. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 7% of the time according to our model. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 2.24 for Orlando and 2.08 for New England, suggesting a high-scoring match is possible.
The model indicates an 81% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance for both teams to score. However, Orlando's recent form shows only 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. New England, on the other hand, has won 4 of their last 5, indicating they may be in better form heading into this fixture.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution: model vs market
| Source | Orlando City SC | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 21% | 36% |
| Market | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Orlando City SC, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 1.89 | 2.00 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.10 | -0.05 |
| New England Revolution | 3.33 | 3.20 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.32
- Attack rating (Orlando City SC / New England Revolution)
- 1.25 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Orlando City SC / New England Revolution)
- 1.36 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orlando City SC goals. Columns: New England Revolution goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| New England Revolution | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orlando City SC or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or New England Revolution) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orlando City SC and New England Revolution recent form
Orlando City SC
2W 3D 1L
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orlando City SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-7
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando City SC at home only, New England Revolution away only.
Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Orlando City SC 6 · draws 1 · New England Revolution 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | New England Revolution | 4-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-04-29 | New England Revolution | 3-4 | Orlando City SC | US Open Cup |
| 2025-07-19 | New England Revolution | 1-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-10 | Orlando City SC | 3-3 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-14 | Orlando City SC | 3-0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-13 | New England Revolution | 1-3 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-02-11 | Orlando City SC | 3-1 | New England Revolution | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-10-07 | Orlando City SC | 3-2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-17 | New England Revolution | 3-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-02-19 | Orlando City SC | 1-2 | New England Revolution | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC 2026-11-07
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page 2026-11-07
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- DC United vs New York City FC 2026-11-07
- FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC — match page 2026-11-07
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Orlando City SC, previous: Charlotte vs Orlando City SC: odds and pick
- New England Revolution, previous: New England Revolution vs Inter Miami prediction