New England Revolution vs Inter Miami preview
In the match between New England Revolution and Inter Miami, the 1X2 probabilities show New England Revolution at 40% to win, Inter Miami at 36%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with Over 2.5 goals predicted at 67% and both teams to score at 68%.
New England Revolution's expected goals stand at 1.78, while Inter Miami's is at 1.67. Recent form for New England Revolution includes three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Inter Miami has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Inter Miami with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last three encounters. A surprise could come from either team's recent form or their head-to-head history.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami: model vs market
| Source | New England Revolution | Draw | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
New England Revolution and Inter Miami expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (New England Revolution / Inter Miami)
- 1.06 / 1.23
- Defence rating (New England Revolution / Inter Miami)
- 0.98 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New England Revolution goals. Columns: Inter Miami goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Inter Miami | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New England Revolution or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter Miami) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | New England Revolution win by 2+ | 22% | 4.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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New England Revolution and Inter Miami recent form
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Inter Miami
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New England Revolution at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Inter Miami away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New England Revolution at home only, Inter Miami away only.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: New England Revolution 0 · draws 1 · Inter Miami 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Inter Miami | 1-1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-04 | Inter Miami | 4-1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-09 | New England Revolution | 1-2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- New England Revolution, previous: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: odds and pick
- Inter Miami, previous: Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati prediction