St. Louis City vs San Diego preview
In the match between St. Louis City and San Diego, the 1X2 probabilities show St. Louis City at 68% to win, compared to San Diego's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. St. Louis City has an expected goals figure of 2.97, while San Diego sits at 1.45.
However, St. Louis City's recent form includes two draws and a loss in their last five matches, which could affect their performance. San Diego has struggled as well, with six games without a win. While our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 73%, the recent form of both teams suggests that the outcome may not be as straightforward.
St. Louis City vs San Diego: model vs market
| Source | St. Louis City | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 17% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 17% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
St. Louis City and San Diego expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (St. Louis City / San Diego)
- 1.24 / 1.15
- Defence rating (St. Louis City / San Diego)
- 0.91 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Louis City vs San Diego score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Louis City goals. Columns: San Diego goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Louis City vs San Diego goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Louis City vs San Diego
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.05 | |
| San Diego | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Louis City or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or San Diego) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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St. Louis City and San Diego recent form
St. Louis City
2W 2D 2L
San Diego
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Louis City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-7
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 12 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Louis City at home only, San Diego away only.
St. Louis City vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: St. Louis City 0 · draws 1 · San Diego 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | San Diego | 2-0 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-11 | St. Louis City | 1-2 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-02 | San Diego | 0-0 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- St. Louis City, previous: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers: odds and pick
- San Diego, previous: Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego analysis