New York City FC vs CF Montreal preview
In the match between New York City FC and CF Montreal, the 1X2 probabilities show New York City FC at 53%, while CF Montreal stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance. New York City FC has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to CF Montreal's 0.88, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could complicate matters. New York City FC has drawn three times and lost three times in their last six matches, while CF Montreal has one win and five losses in their last six. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 45%. These figures suggest that while New York City FC is favored, CF Montreal's past dominance in head-to-head matches could lead to an unexpected outcome.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal: model vs market
| Source | New York City FC | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
New York City FC and CF Montreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (New York City FC / CF Montreal)
- 0.77 / 0.65
- Defence rating (New York City FC / CF Montreal)
- 0.98 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York City FC goals. Columns: CF Montreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York City FC vs CF Montreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| CF Montreal | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York City FC or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Montreal) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | New York City FC win by 2+ | 29% | 3.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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New York City FC and CF Montreal recent form
New York City FC
0W 3D 3L
CF Montreal
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-11
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New York City FC at home only, CF Montreal away only.
New York City FC vs CF Montreal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: New York City FC 0 · draws 0 · CF Montreal 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | CF Montreal | 1-0 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-28 | CF Montreal | 1-0 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-10 | New York City FC | 0-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC 2026-10-31
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-31
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-31
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- New York City FC, previous: New York City FC v Atlanta United FC analysis
- CF Montreal, previous: Charlotte – CF Montreal, 2026-10-28