Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas preview
Sporting Kansas City faces FC Dallas with a 23% chance of winning compared to FC Dallas's 56%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.47 for Sporting Kansas City and 2.32 for FC Dallas. With a high probability of 73% for Over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, this match could see plenty of action.
Sporting Kansas City's recent form shows 4 losses in their last 5 matches, while FC Dallas has 3 wins in their last 5. The head-to-head record also favors FC Dallas, with 6 wins out of the last 10 encounters. A lack of form for Sporting Kansas City could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Sporting Kansas City / FC Dallas)
- 0.91 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Sporting Kansas City / FC Dallas)
- 1.46 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Kansas City goals. Columns: FC Dallas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 23% | 4.36 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| FC Dallas | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Kansas City or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Dallas) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Dallas win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas recent form
Sporting Kansas City
1W 1D 4L
FC Dallas
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Kansas City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-9
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
FC Dallas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Kansas City at home only, FC Dallas away only.
Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 4 · draws 0 · FC Dallas 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | FC Dallas | 4-3 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-15 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-4 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-30 | FC Dallas | 2-1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-20 | FC Dallas | 2-1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-11 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | FC Dallas | US Open Cup |
| 2024-07-08 | Sporting Kansas City | 3-2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-01 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-19 | FC Dallas | 2-1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | FC Dallas | 2-1 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-05-11 | Sporting Kansas City | 4-2 | FC Dallas | US Open Cup |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Charlotte vs Orlando City SC 2026-10-31
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page 2026-10-31
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-31
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sporting Kansas City, previous: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction
- FC Dallas, previous: FC Dallas v Columbus Crew analysis