FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union preview
In the match between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union, the 1X2 probabilities show Philadelphia Union at 56%, compared to FC Cincinnati's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Our model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 73%.
Recent form suggests FC Cincinnati has won 3 of their last 6 matches, while Philadelphia Union has an impressive record with 5 wins in their last 6 games. However, FC Cincinnati has won 5 of the last 10 head-to-head encounters, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union: model vs market
| Source | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 21% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 21% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (FC Cincinnati / Philadelphia Union)
- 0.99 / 1.54
- Defence rating (FC Cincinnati / Philadelphia Union)
- 1.14 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cincinnati goals. Columns: Philadelphia Union goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 24% | 4.18 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.88 | |
| Philadelphia Union | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cincinnati or draw) | 44% | 2.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Philadelphia Union) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union recent form
FC Cincinnati
3W 0D 3L
Philadelphia Union
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cincinnati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 2.53
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-7
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 2.13
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cincinnati at home only, Philadelphia Union away only.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cincinnati 5 · draws 1 · Philadelphia Union 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Philadelphia Union | 5-0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-30 | FC Cincinnati | 0-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-02 | Philadelphia Union | 4-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-07 | FC Cincinnati | 4-1 | Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-20 | Philadelphia Union | 1-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-08-13 | FC Cincinnati | 2-4 | Philadelphia Union | Leagues Cup |
| 2024-06-19 | FC Cincinnati | 4-3 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-02-09 | FC Cincinnati | 4-3 | Philadelphia Union | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-11-26 | FC Cincinnati | 1-0 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-16 | Philadelphia Union | 2-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-31
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- FC Cincinnati, previous: Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati prediction
- Philadelphia Union, previous: Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union, 2026-10-29