FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC preview
In the match between FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Nashville SC at 43%, while FC Cincinnati is at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Nashville's expected goals of 1.89 compared to FC Cincinnati's 1.03.
Both teams to score is projected at 56%, and Over 2.5 goals also stands at 56%. However, FC Cincinnati's recent form includes two losses, which could impact their performance. Nashville SC has been in better form with four wins in their last six matches, making them a strong contender for this fixture.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC: model vs market
| Source | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nashville SC, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 2.37 | 2.55 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.78 | -0.04 |
| Nashville SC | 2.67 | 2.45 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (FC Cincinnati / Nashville SC)
- 0.98 / 1.30
- Defence rating (FC Cincinnati / Nashville SC)
- 1.06 / 0.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cincinnati goals. Columns: Nashville SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Nashville SC | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cincinnati or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Nashville SC) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 34% | 2.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC recent form
FC Cincinnati
3W 1D 2L
Nashville SC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cincinnati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 22 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cincinnati at home only, Nashville SC away only.
FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cincinnati 4 · draws 3 · Nashville SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Nashville SC | 4-0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-13 | FC Cincinnati | 2-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-30 | Nashville SC | 1-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-22 | Nashville SC | 2-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-29 | FC Cincinnati | 0-2 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-08-05 | FC Cincinnati | 1-1 | Nashville SC | Leagues Cup |
| 2023-07-15 | FC Cincinnati | 3-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-26 | Nashville SC | 0-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-02-17 | Nashville SC | 6-3 | FC Cincinnati | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-07-23 | FC Cincinnati | 1-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC 2026-11-07
- Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew — match page 2026-11-07
- CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- DC United vs New York City FC 2026-11-07
- Inter Miami vs Charlotte — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Cincinnati, previous: FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union analysis
- Nashville SC, previous: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls: odds and pick