CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps preview
In the match between CF Montreal and Vancouver Whitecaps, the 1X2 probabilities show CF Montreal at 19%, a draw at 21%, and Vancouver Whitecaps at 60%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a probability of 11%. Vancouver's expected goals stand at 2.30, compared to CF Montreal's 0.84, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the visitors.
Vancouver Whitecaps are in better recent form, with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while CF Montreal has 1 draw and 5 losses. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 52%. However, if CF Montreal can improve their performance, the expected goals could shift, potentially affecting the outcome.
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps: model vs market
| Source | CF Montreal | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 19% | 69% |
| Market | 21% | 22% | 56% |
| Published | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vancouver Whitecaps below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vancouver Whitecaps, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 4.33 | 4.40 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.31 | 4.27 | -0.04 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CF Montreal and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (CF Montreal / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.61 / 1.32
- Defence rating (CF Montreal / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 1.26 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Montreal goals. Columns: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Montreal | 19% | 5.29 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Montreal or draw) | 40% | 2.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver Whitecaps) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver Whitecaps win by 2+ | 47% | 2.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CF Montreal and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
CF Montreal
0W 2D 4L
Vancouver Whitecaps
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CF Montreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CF Montreal at home only, Vancouver Whitecaps away only.
CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: CF Montreal 3 · draws 2 · Vancouver Whitecaps 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | CF Montreal | 2-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Canadian Championship |
| 2026-09-03 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | CF Montreal | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-03-09 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-06 | CF Montreal | 1-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-1 | CF Montreal | Canadian Championship |
| 2023-04-02 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 5-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-04-16 | CF Montreal | 2-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-05-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2020-09-17 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2020-09-14 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-4 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- CF Montreal, previous: New York City FC vs CF Montreal prediction
- Vancouver Whitecaps, previous: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders prediction