Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls preview
Nashville SC faces New York Red Bulls with a 72% chance of winning compared to just 9% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Nashville's expected goals of 2.13 against New York's 0.61. Nashville's recent form shows 6 matches with 5 wins and 1 draw, while New York has 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6.
However, there are factors that could change the outcome. Nashville has a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score. If New York can improve their attacking play, they might increase their chances of scoring, which could affect the final result.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls: model vs market
| Source | Nashville SC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 20% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Nashville SC / New York Red Bulls)
- 1.39 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Nashville SC / New York Red Bulls)
- 0.57 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nashville SC goals. Columns: New York Red Bulls goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.09 | |
| New York Red Bulls | 9% | 11.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nashville SC or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or New York Red Bulls) | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls recent form
Nashville SC
5W 1D 0L
New York Red Bulls
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nashville SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-1-0
- Win rate
- 93%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 21 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York Red Bulls away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nashville SC at home only, New York Red Bulls away only.
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nashville SC 2 · draws 0 · New York Red Bulls 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | New York Red Bulls | 0-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-15 | Nashville SC | 2-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-02 | New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- Nashville SC, previous: Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union, 2026-10-29
- New York Red Bulls, previous: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: odds and pick