Charlotte vs Orlando City SC preview
In the match between Charlotte and Orlando City SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Charlotte at 46%, Orlando City SC at 34%, and a draw at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams have shown some inconsistency in recent form, with Charlotte recording 2 wins in their last 5 matches and Orlando City SC having 2 wins in their last 6.
The model suggests high-scoring potential, with an 83% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 81% chance for both teams to score. However, the recent head-to-head record favors Orlando City SC, who have 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. This could impact the outcome, despite Charlotte's home advantage.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC: model vs market
| Source | Charlotte | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 20% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 20% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 2.11.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Charlotte and Orlando City SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.55
- Attack rating (Charlotte / Orlando City SC)
- 1.13 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Charlotte / Orlando City SC)
- 1.09 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlotte goals. Columns: Orlando City SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlotte vs Orlando City SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlotte | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Orlando City SC | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.24 |
| No | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlotte or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Orlando City SC) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlotte win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Charlotte and Orlando City SC recent form
Charlotte
2W 1D 3L
Orlando City SC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlotte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlotte at home only, Orlando City SC away only.
Charlotte vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Charlotte 0 · draws 1 · Orlando City SC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Orlando City SC | 4-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-05 | Charlotte | 2-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-14 | Orlando City SC | 3-1 | Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- New York City FC v CF Montreal — match page 2026-10-31
- Columbus Crew vs DC United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-31
- Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-31
- St. Louis City vs San Diego — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-31
- Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin — match page 2026-10-31
- Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Charlotte, previous: Charlotte – CF Montreal, 2026-10-28
- Orlando City SC, previous: Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC: odds and pick