San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City preview
In the match between San Diego and Sporting Kansas City, the 1X2 probabilities show San Diego at 55% to win, while Sporting Kansas City sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects an expected goals tally of San Diego at 2.51 and Sporting Kansas City at 1.68.
San Diego's recent form includes 1 win, 1 loss, and 4 draws, while Sporting Kansas City has 5 matches without a win, recording 4 losses and 2 draws. The model indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 75%. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City: model vs market
| Source | San Diego | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.68.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Diego, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 1.40 | 1.50 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 5.00 | -0.30 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 6.00 | 5.20 | -0.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.19
- Attack rating (San Diego / Sporting Kansas City)
- 1.04 / 0.90
- Defence rating (San Diego / Sporting Kansas City)
- 1.35 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Diego goals. Columns: Sporting Kansas City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Diego or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Kansas City) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Diego and Sporting Kansas City recent form
San Diego
1W 3D 2L
Sporting Kansas City
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Diego at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 2.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 12 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-13
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 2.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Diego at home only, Sporting Kansas City away only.
San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Diego 2 · draws 1 · Sporting Kansas City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Sporting Kansas City | 0-1 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-10 | Sporting Kansas City | 0-2 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-18 | San Diego | 0-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page 2026-11-08
- Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2026-11-08
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page 2026-11-08
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- San Diego, previous: St. Louis City vs San Diego prediction
- Sporting Kansas City, previous: Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas: odds and pick