Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City preview
In the match between Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City, the 1X2 probabilities show Houston Dynamo at 36% and St. Louis City at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Houston Dynamo's last five matches showing 1 win and 4 draws, while St. Louis City has 3 losses and 2 draws. The expected goals are close, with Houston Dynamo at 1.37 and St. Louis City at 1.40. While Over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance and both teams to score is at 57%, the recent form could lead to a different outcome.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City: model vs market
| Source | Houston Dynamo | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Houston Dynamo, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2.45 | 2.51 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.51 | 3.55 | +0.04 |
| St. Louis City | 2.70 | 2.63 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Houston Dynamo / St. Louis City)
- 0.79 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Houston Dynamo / St. Louis City)
- 0.91 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals. Columns: St. Louis City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| St. Louis City | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Houston Dynamo or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or St. Louis City) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win by 2+ | 17% | 6.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City recent form
Houston Dynamo
1W 4D 1L
St. Louis City
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Houston Dynamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
St. Louis City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Houston Dynamo at home only, St. Louis City away only.
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Houston Dynamo 3 · draws 3 · St. Louis City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | St. Louis City | 2-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-05-20 | St. Louis City | 2-2 | Houston Dynamo | US Open Cup |
| 2025-08-31 | St. Louis City | 2-3 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-29 | Houston Dynamo | 1-0 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-06 | St. Louis City | 3-0 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-05 | Houston Dynamo | 0-0 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-02-28 | Houston Dynamo | 1-0 | St. Louis City | CONCACAF Champions League |
| 2024-02-21 | St. Louis City | 2-1 | Houston Dynamo | CONCACAF Champions League |
| 2023-09-17 | Houston Dynamo | 1-1 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-04 | St. Louis City | 3-0 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v New England Revolution — match page 2026-11-07
- Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 2026-11-08
- FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — match page 2026-11-08
- Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2026-11-08
- Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes — match page 2026-11-08
- Austin vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Houston Dynamo, previous: Portland Timbers – Houston Dynamo, 2026-11-02
- St. Louis City, previous: St. Louis City vs San Diego prediction