Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo preview
In the match between Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo, the 1X2 probabilities show Portland at 39%, a draw at 27%, and Houston at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs at a 9% chance.
Portland's expected goals are 1.48, while Houston's are 1.35. Both teams to score sits at 58%, indicating a strong likelihood for goals from both sides. However, Portland's recent form is concerning with 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Houston, with 4 draws in their last 6 games, may also struggle to secure a win.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: model vs market
| Source | Portland Timbers | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Portland Timbers / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.00 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Portland Timbers / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.16 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portland Timbers goals. Columns: Houston Dynamo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portland Timbers | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Houston Dynamo | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portland Timbers or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Houston Dynamo) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portland Timbers win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo recent form
Portland Timbers
1W 2D 3L
Houston Dynamo
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portland Timbers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Houston Dynamo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Portland Timbers at home only, Houston Dynamo away only.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Portland Timbers 1 · draws 0 · Houston Dynamo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Houston Dynamo | 3-2 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-21 | Houston Dynamo | 1-0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-30 | Portland Timbers | 3-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
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Before and after this match
- Portland Timbers, previous: St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers: odds and pick
- Houston Dynamo, previous: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo prediction