Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC preview
Atlanta United FC faces Toronto FC with a 48% chance of winning compared to Toronto's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Atlanta's expected goals of 2.19 against Toronto's 1.75. Both teams to score stands at 74%, and there is a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 75%.
However, Atlanta's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last three matches, while Toronto has had mixed results, winning only one of their last six games. This could impact the outcome, as both teams have struggled to find consistent form. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC: model vs market
| Source | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.75.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Atlanta United FC / Toronto FC)
- 1.00 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Atlanta United FC / Toronto FC)
- 1.15 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlanta United FC goals. Columns: Toronto FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Toronto FC | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlanta United FC or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Toronto FC) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta United FC win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC recent form
Atlanta United FC
2W 1D 3L
Toronto FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlanta United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Toronto FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta United FC at home only, Toronto FC away only.
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atlanta United FC 1 · draws 2 · Toronto FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toronto FC | 1-2 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-24 | Atlanta United FC | 0-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-12 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- New England Revolution v Inter Miami — match page 2026-11-02
- Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Atlanta United FC, previous: New York City FC v Atlanta United FC analysis
- Toronto FC, previous: Toronto FC – DC United, 2026-10-28