Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town preview
In the match between Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Caernarfon Town with a 46% chance of winning, compared to Airbus UK's 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. With expected goals of 1.89 for Airbus UK and 2.24 for Caernarfon Town, it suggests a competitive game.
The model also indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 77%. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes could occur. If Airbus UK improves their recent form, where they have won 3 of their last 6 matches, they could challenge Caernarfon Town effectively.
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town: model vs market
| Source | Airbus UK | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Published | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.89.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.13
- Attack rating (Airbus UK / Caernarfon Town)
- 1.37 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Airbus UK / Caernarfon Town)
- 0.96 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Airbus UK goals. Columns: Caernarfon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Airbus UK | 27% | 3.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Caernarfon Town | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.31 |
| No | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Airbus UK or draw) | 50% | 1.99 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Caernarfon Town) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win by 2+ | 28% | 3.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town recent form
Airbus UK
4W 0D 2L
Caernarfon Town
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Airbus UK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-0
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Airbus UK at home only, Caernarfon Town away only.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Barry Town vs Trefelin — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC 2026-10-30
- Briton Ferry v Llandudno — match page 2026-10-30
- Colwyn Bay vs Cambrian & Clydach 2026-10-30
- Flint Town United v Holywell — match page 2026-10-30
- Cardiff MET vs Penybont 2026-10-31
- The New Saints v GAP Connah S Quay FC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Airbus UK, previous: Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK prediction
- Caernarfon Town, previous: Caernarfon Town – Briton Ferry, 2026-10-23