Cardiff MET vs Penybont preview
In the Wales Premier League fixture, Cardiff MET faces Penybont with 29% chances for Cardiff MET to win, 27% for a draw, and 44% for Penybont to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability.
Cardiff MET's expected goals stand at 1.26 while Penybont's is higher at 1.58. Both teams to score has a 58% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. Cardiff MET's recent form shows D-L-W-W-D-L, while Penybont has been strong with W-L-W-W-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff MET | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cardiff MET and Penybont expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Cardiff MET / Penybont)
- 1.06 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Cardiff MET / Penybont)
- 0.92 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff MET goals. Columns: Penybont goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff MET vs Penybont
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Penybont | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff MET or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Penybont) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win by 2+ | 23% | 4.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cardiff MET and Penybont recent form
Cardiff MET
2W 2D 2L
Penybont
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff MET at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff MET at home only, Penybont away only.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cardiff MET 0 · draws 1 · Penybont 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Penybont | 1-1 | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-09-23 | Cardiff MET | 0-4 | Penybont | Wales Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Cardiff MET, previous: Colwyn Bay – Cardiff MET, 2026-10-23
- Penybont, previous: Holywell v Penybont analysis