Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET preview
In the fixture between Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET, Colwyn Bay has a 47% chance to win compared to Cardiff MET's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Colwyn Bay's expected goals of 1.54 against Cardiff MET's 1.07.
However, the prediction could be affected by Cardiff MET's recent form, which includes 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a possibility that Cardiff MET could find the net. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET: model vs market
| Source | Colwyn Bay | Draw | Cardiff MET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colwyn Bay, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1.95 | 1.61 | -0.34 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.80 | +0.48 |
| Cardiff MET | 3.52 | 4.75 | +1.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Colwyn Bay / Cardiff MET)
- 1.07 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Colwyn Bay / Cardiff MET)
- 0.72 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colwyn Bay goals. Columns: Cardiff MET goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colwyn Bay | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Cardiff MET | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colwyn Bay or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Cardiff MET) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET recent form
Colwyn Bay
5W 0D 1L
Cardiff MET
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colwyn Bay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff MET away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colwyn Bay at home only, Cardiff MET away only.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Colwyn Bay 2 · draws 2 · Cardiff MET 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Colwyn Bay | 0-0 | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-09-06 | Cardiff MET | 1-4 | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League |
| 2024-02-17 | Cardiff MET | 3-2 | Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| 2023-09-30 | Colwyn Bay | 2-2 | Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| 2023-08-26 | Cardiff MET | 1-0 | Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| 2021-10-16 | Colwyn Bay | 1-0 | Cardiff MET | Welsh Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Colwyn Bay, previous: Flint Town United v Colwyn Bay analysis
- Cardiff MET, previous: Cardiff MET vs Trefelin prediction