The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC preview
In the fixture between The New Saints and Ammanford AFC, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong advantage for The New Saints at 95%, with a predicted scoreline of 4-0 (12%). The model also suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 87%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
However, Ammanford AFC's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could disrupt the expected outcome. Additionally, the probability of both teams to score is only 39%, suggesting that Ammanford may struggle to find the net. This could affect the overall dynamics of the match and the predicted scoreline.
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC: model vs market
| Source | The New Saints | Draw | Ammanford AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| Market | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Published | 94% | 5% | 2% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.50 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.03, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on The New Saints, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 1.02 | 1.02 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 14.00 | 19.00 | +5.00 |
| Ammanford AFC | 35.00 | 55.50 | +20.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.99
- Attack rating (The New Saints / Ammanford AFC)
- 2.11 / 0.67
- Defence rating (The New Saints / Ammanford AFC)
- 0.51 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: The New Saints goals. Columns: Ammanford AFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 94% | 1.07 |
| Draw | 5% | 21.50 | |
| Ammanford AFC | 2% | 66.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.58 |
| No | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (The New Saints or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 95% | 1.05 | |
| X2 (draw or Ammanford AFC) | 6% | 16.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win by 2+ | 88% | 1.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 8% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC recent form
The New Saints
6W 0D 0L
Ammanford AFC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
The New Saints at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.29
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 12 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Ammanford AFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: The New Saints at home only, Ammanford AFC away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET 2026-10-23
- Holywell v Penybont — match page 2026-10-23
- Trefelin vs Flint Town United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno 2026-10-24
- Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- The New Saints, previous: Holywell vs The New Saints: odds and pick
- Ammanford AFC, previous: Cambrian & Clydach – Ammanford AFC, 2026-10-09