Updated

Wales Premier League · Matchday 14

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno

· Essity Stadium, Flint· Referee A. McInch

Alin prediction GAP Connah S Quay FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawLlandudno
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.84.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.42 Draw4.90 Llandudno7.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.42: -4.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 8 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno preview

GAP Connah S Quay FC has a strong 74% chance of winning against Llandudno, who has just a 9% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11% probability. GAP Connah S Quay FC's expected goals stand at 2.59, while Llandudno's is only 0.84.

However, Llandudno could surprise, as they have a 53% chance of both teams scoring. Their recent form shows 5 losses and 1 draw in the last 6 matches, while GAP Connah S Quay FC has won 5 of their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawLlandudno
Model74%17%9%
Market65%21%14%
Published67%20%13%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GAP Connah S Quay FC, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 1.46Now 1.39 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.461.39-0.07
Draw3.954.37+0.42
Llandudno5.706.50+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.59GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.84Llandudno
Total expected goals
3.43
Attack rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Llandudno)
1.30 / 0.98
Defence rating (GAP Connah S Quay FC / Llandudno)
0.60 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1 7.6% 7.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 2 10.8% 9.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.3% 7.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 11.3% 9.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: GAP Connah S Quay FC goals. Columns: Llandudno goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC67%1.48
Draw20%5.07
Llandudno13%7.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.00
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.15
Double chance1X (GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Llandudno)33%3.08
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win by 2+53%1.87
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno recent form

GAP Connah S Quay FC 5W 0D 1L
Llandudno 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-1
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
2.29
Goals against / match
0.43
Clean sheets
5 of 7
  • They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Llandudno away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-5
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: GAP Connah S Quay FC at home only, Llandudno away only.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: GAP Connah S Quay FC 5 · draws 2 · Llandudno 3.

GAP Connah S Quay FCDrawsLlandudno
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-11-21Llandudno2-1GAP Connah S Quay FCWelsh Cup
2021-08-06GAP Connah S Quay FC2-0LlandudnoLeague Cup
2018-12-01GAP Connah S Quay FC3-0LlandudnoPremier League
2018-09-22Llandudno0-4GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2017-10-21GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1LlandudnoPremier League
2017-08-26Llandudno1-0GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2016-11-13Llandudno0-2GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2016-09-20GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1LlandudnoPremier League
2016-03-26Llandudno1-2GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League
2016-02-13GAP Connah S Quay FC2-3LlandudnoPremier League

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot GAP Connah S Quay FC to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on GAP Connah S Quay FC
Our pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC to win 18+ Bet Now