Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry preview
In the fixture between Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry, the 1X2 probabilities show Caernarfon Town at 71%, while Briton Ferry sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Caernarfon Town's expected goals of 2.65 compared to Briton Ferry's 1.03.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. While Caernarfon Town has a solid recent form of W-L-D-W-D-W, Briton Ferry's recent results include 3 losses in their last 6 matches. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 61%, and the chance for Over 2.5 goals is 71%, indicating that while Caernarfon Town is favored, surprises are still possible.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry: model vs market
| Source | Caernarfon Town | Draw | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Caernarfon Town, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | 1.29 | 1.31 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 4.97 | -0.23 |
| Briton Ferry | 8.00 | 7.46 | -0.54 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.68
- Attack rating (Caernarfon Town / Briton Ferry)
- 1.58 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Caernarfon Town / Briton Ferry)
- 0.94 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Caernarfon Town goals. Columns: Briton Ferry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.54 | |
| Briton Ferry | 12% | 8.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Caernarfon Town or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Briton Ferry) | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win by 2+ | 51% | 1.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry recent form
Caernarfon Town
3W 2D 1L
Briton Ferry
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Caernarfon Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Briton Ferry away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Caernarfon Town at home only, Briton Ferry away only.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Caernarfon Town 4 · draws 0 · Briton Ferry 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Caernarfon Town | 4-1 | Briton Ferry | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Briton Ferry | 2-5 | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League |
| 2024-11-09 | Briton Ferry | 0-1 | Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| 2024-09-14 | Caernarfon Town | 3-2 | Briton Ferry | Premier League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Trefelin vs Flint Town United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno 2026-10-24
- Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Caernarfon Town, previous: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: odds and pick
- Briton Ferry, previous: Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC prediction