Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC preview
In the fixture between Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC, the 1X2 probabilities show Barry Town at 53% to win, while Haverfordwest County AFC sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Barry Town has an expected goals figure of 1.71 compared to Haverfordwest's 1.00, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Barry Town's last five matches include two wins, while Haverfordwest has won two of their last six, with four losses. Both teams to score stands at 53%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 51%. If Haverfordwest improves their scoring, it could challenge the expected result.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC: model vs market
| Source | Barry Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.00.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barry Town, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Town | 1.83 | 1.95 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.37 | -0.15 |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 3.54 | 3.44 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Barry Town / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 1.17 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Barry Town / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 1.22 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barry Town goals. Columns: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barry Town or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Haverfordwest County AFC) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barry Town win by 2+ | 30% | 3.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form
Barry Town
2W 1D 3L
Haverfordwest County AFC
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barry Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haverfordwest County AFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barry Town at home only, Haverfordwest County AFC away only.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Barry Town 2 · draws 1 · Haverfordwest County AFC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Barry Town | 1-1 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-11-28 | Barry Town | 4-0 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-09-23 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 2-3 | Barry Town | Wales Premier League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- The New Saints v Ammanford AFC — match page 2026-10-23
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET 2026-10-23
- Holywell v Penybont — match page 2026-10-23
- Trefelin vs Flint Town United — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Barry Town, previous: Penybont v Barry Town analysis
- Haverfordwest County AFC, previous: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: odds and pick