Trefelin vs Flint Town United preview
In the match between Trefelin and Flint Town United, the 1X2 probabilities show Flint Town United at 40%, Trefelin at 31%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Trefelin's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Flint Town United has a slightly better form with 2 wins in their last 6. The expected goals are Trefelin 1.18 and Flint Town United 1.36, indicating a close contest.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United: model vs market
| Source | Trefelin | Draw | Flint Town United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Trefelin vs Flint Town United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flint Town United, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 2.77 | 3.19 | +0.41 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 |
| Flint Town United | 2.17 | 2.00 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trefelin and Flint Town United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Trefelin / Flint Town United)
- 0.66 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Trefelin / Flint Town United)
- 1.35 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trefelin goals. Columns: Flint Town United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trefelin vs Flint Town United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Flint Town United | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trefelin or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Flint Town United) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flint Town United win by 2+ | 19% | 5.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Trefelin and Flint Town United recent form
Trefelin
1W 1D 4L
Flint Town United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trefelin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
Flint Town United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trefelin at home only, Flint Town United away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- The New Saints v Ammanford AFC — match page 2026-10-23
- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET 2026-10-23
- Holywell v Penybont — match page 2026-10-23
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno 2026-10-24
- Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Trefelin, previous: Cardiff MET vs Trefelin prediction
- Flint Town United, previous: Flint Town United v Colwyn Bay analysis