The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC preview
The New Saints have a 67% chance to win against GAP Connah S Quay FC, who have a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 60% probability of Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. The New Saints have an expected goals figure of 2.24, while GAP Connah S Quay FC sits at 0.89.
Both teams are in strong form, with The New Saints winning their last 6 matches and GAP Connah S Quay FC also winning their last 6. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If GAP Connah S Quay FC can improve their attacking output, they might challenge the expected outcome.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: model vs market
| Source | The New Saints | Draw | GAP Connah S Quay FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.89.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (The New Saints / GAP Connah S Quay FC)
- 2.47 / 1.31
- Defence rating (The New Saints / GAP Connah S Quay FC)
- 0.47 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: The New Saints goals. Columns: GAP Connah S Quay FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13% | 7.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (The New Saints or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC) | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form
The New Saints
6W 0D 0L
GAP Connah S Quay FC
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
The New Saints at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 8
- They have won 12 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
GAP Connah S Quay FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: The New Saints at home only, GAP Connah S Quay FC away only.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: The New Saints 3 · draws 0 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | The New Saints | 2-1 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-03-03 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1-2 | The New Saints | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-12-31 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 3-1 | The New Saints | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-08-22 | The New Saints | 3-0 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Wales Premier League |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Barry Town vs Trefelin — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC 2026-10-30
- Briton Ferry v Llandudno — match page 2026-10-30
- Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Colwyn Bay vs Cambrian & Clydach 2026-10-30
- Flint Town United v Holywell — match page 2026-10-30
- Cardiff MET vs Penybont 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- The New Saints, previous: The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC prediction
- GAP Connah S Quay FC, previous: GAP Connah S Quay FC v Llandudno analysis