Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC preview
In the fixture between Ammanford AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC, the 1X2 probabilities show Haverfordwest County AFC at 60%, compared to Ammanford AFC's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a probability of 11%. Haverfordwest County AFC has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.87, while Ammanford AFC sits at 0.89.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a chance for Ammanford AFC to find the net. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals is projected at 52%, suggesting that if Ammanford AFC performs better than expected, the final score could be different from the model's prediction.
Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC: model vs market
| Source | Ammanford AFC | Draw | Haverfordwest County AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.89.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ammanford AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Ammanford AFC / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 0.61 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Ammanford AFC / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 1.83 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ammanford AFC goals. Columns: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 16% | 6.15 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ammanford AFC or draw) | 40% | 2.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Haverfordwest County AFC) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Haverfordwest County AFC win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ammanford AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form
Ammanford AFC
2W 1D 3L
Haverfordwest County AFC
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ammanford AFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haverfordwest County AFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ammanford AFC at home only, Haverfordwest County AFC away only.
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Before and after this match
- Ammanford AFC, previous: The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC prediction
- Haverfordwest County AFC, previous: Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC: odds and pick