Barry Town vs Trefelin preview
In the match between Barry Town and Trefelin, the 1X2 probabilities show Barry Town at 68%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). Barry Town has an expected goals figure of 2.49, while Trefelin sits at 1.04. This suggests a strong advantage for Barry Town.
However, the recent form indicates some inconsistency, with Barry Town recording L-W-L-L-D-W and Trefelin at L-W-L-L-D-L. This could impact the match outcome, as both teams to score has a probability of 60%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 69%. If Trefelin can improve their performance, the expected results may not hold.
Barry Town vs Trefelin: model vs market
| Source | Barry Town | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.11.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barry Town and Trefelin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Barry Town / Trefelin)
- 1.14 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Barry Town / Trefelin)
- 1.29 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barry Town vs Trefelin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barry Town goals. Columns: Trefelin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barry Town vs Trefelin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barry Town vs Trefelin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.14 | |
| Trefelin | 15% | 6.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barry Town or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Trefelin) | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barry Town win by 2+ | 44% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Barry Town and Trefelin recent form
Barry Town
1W 1D 4L
Trefelin
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barry Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trefelin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barry Town at home only, Trefelin away only.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Ammanford AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC 2026-10-30
- Briton Ferry v Llandudno — match page 2026-10-30
- Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Colwyn Bay vs Cambrian & Clydach 2026-10-30
- Flint Town United v Holywell — match page 2026-10-30
- Cardiff MET vs Penybont 2026-10-31
- The New Saints v GAP Connah S Quay FC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Barry Town, previous: Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC: odds and pick
- Trefelin, previous: Trefelin vs Flint Town United: odds and pick