Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes preview

In the upcoming match between Kabwe Warriors and Green Buffaloes, the 1X2 probabilities show Kabwe Warriors at 42%, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 at 18%. Kabwe Warriors have a slight edge in expected goals at 1.02 compared to Green Buffaloes' 0.64, indicating they may create more scoring chances.

However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score stands at 31%, and Over 2.5 goals is at just 23%. This indicates a low likelihood of a high-scoring match, which could affect predictions if either team finds their scoring form.

Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kabwe Warriors	Draw	Green Buffaloes
Model	42%	36%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	36%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.64.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kabwe Warriors and Green Buffaloes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Kabwe Warriors

0.64Green Buffaloes

Total expected goals: 1.65
Attack rating (Kabwe Warriors / Green Buffaloes): 1.18 / 0.74
Defence rating (Kabwe Warriors / Green Buffaloes): 1.21 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.4% 11.0% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1 18.2% 13.6% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2% 2 9.9% 6.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 3 3.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Kabwe Warriors goals. Columns: Green Buffaloes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 50%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kabwe Warriors vs Green Buffaloes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kabwe Warriors	42%	2.35
	Draw	36%	2.76
	Green Buffaloes	21%	4.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.34
	Under 2.5	77%	1.30
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.19
	No	69%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Kabwe Warriors or draw)	79%	1.27
	12 (either side)	64%	1.57
	X2 (draw or Green Buffaloes)	58%	1.74
Handicap -1	Kabwe Warriors win by 2+	17%	5.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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