NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers preview

In the upcoming match between NAPSA Stars and Nchanga Rangers, the 1X2 probabilities show NAPSA Stars at 52%, while Nchanga Rangers sit at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 21% chance. NAPSA Stars have a slight edge in expected goals at 1.17 compared to Nchanga Rangers' 0.50.

However, the recent form suggests potential unpredictability. NAPSA Stars have drawn three of their last six matches, while Nchanga Rangers have lost four of their last five. This could impact the outcome, making it possible for Nchanga Rangers to perform better than expected. Additionally, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 23% and both teams to score at 28% indicate a likelihood of a low-scoring affair.

NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	NAPSA Stars	Draw	Nchanga Rangers
Model	52%	34%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	52%	34%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.50.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

NAPSA Stars and Nchanga Rangers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17NAPSA Stars

0.50Nchanga Rangers

Total expected goals: 1.67
Attack rating (NAPSA Stars / Nchanga Rangers): 0.94 / 0.78
Defence rating (NAPSA Stars / Nchanga Rangers): 0.89 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.9% 8.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1 21.0% 12.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2 13.0% 6.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3 5.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: NAPSA Stars goals. Columns: Nchanga Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	NAPSA Stars	52%	1.93
	Draw	34%	2.97
	Nchanga Rangers	15%	6.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.26
	Under 2.5	77%	1.31
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.56
	No	72%	1.39
Double chance	1X (NAPSA Stars or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Nchanga Rangers)	48%	2.07
Handicap -1	NAPSA Stars win by 2+	24%	4.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	28%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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